More on the 2007/2008 Defence Budget

In a special report on the South African 2007/08 Budget, Darren J writes on the more important aspects of the Defence budget for www.SAairforce.co.za:

Budget week has come and gone, taking with it the usual rush of breathless and generally inaccurate punditry. Figures have been thrown around with reckless abandon, evidently in the failed attempt to portray a level of confident mastery that was clearly lacking amongst many of the journalists tasked with translating Trevor's budget for the rest of us.

Unfortunately, this sad lack of competency carried through to reporting on the defence budget, where story after story reported, incorrectly, that the government was to spend R388 million on peacekeeping. Even the government got into the act, via a shocker from BuaNews, the state news agency. The confusion, it seems, stems from Trevor Manuel's speech, in which he mentioned R388 million in funding for the African Renaissance Fund and Pan-African Parliament right before speaking about defence and peacekeeping, leading some journalists to mistakenly construe that the African Renaissance Fund helps pay for peacekeeping operations. In reality it doesn't, it's more of a loan service for stricken countries. And as I'll show later, we're actually spending around R850 million on peacekeeping.

But first, to the budget itself. In a welcome move, the cabinet has again heard the voices of reason and has begun to fund the SANDF more realistically, with the defence budget increasing by 8.4% from R23.9 billion last year to R25.9 billion this year. More significantly, this represents a mammoth 28% increase over FY2004/2005's measly R20 billion budget and the Treasury's current plans are for the budget to grow to R28.6 billion by 2009. Coming ahead of the long-overdue defence review, this might just be a sign that the government's chronic underfunding of the SANDF is finally coming to an end.

In honour of this development, I'm going to delve a bit deeper than usual into this year's budget, focusing on each of the major arms of service and their background information, as well as on peacekeeping operations.

Army
Unsurprisingly, the army gets the lion's share of the budget compared to the other services, being allocated R4.2 billion for the coming year. This is significantly higher than the R3.3 billion it received in FY2004/2005 and represents a 3.8% increase over last year's allocation. This cash influx is allowing the army to rejuvenate itself, recruiting healthy new members thanks to the MSDS (Military Skills Development System) while reforming the long-dormant Reserve Force. So far, the results are encouraging: 43% of regular force privates now fall within the required 18-24 years age bracket (compared to only 7% in 2002) and over 800 reserve force soldiers were deployed in operations last year. With the number of MSDS recruits expected to increase to 10 000 per year by 2009 and the training budget being increased accordingly, it looks like the army is well on track to achieving the optimal age-to-rank ratio, creating a younger and more motivated force.

Having been left out of the original arms deal, the army is now preparing to go on a prolonged buying spree in order to replace much of its obsolete equipment. First to go will be the Ratel, which will probably be replaced with Finland's Denel-turreted Patria AMV. Thereafter, the army will procure new armoured personnel carriers, cargo trucks and, from 2010 onwards, new tanks. So if you thought the peacenik bitching over the other arms deal was bad, wait till you see their reaction when these get announced.

Air Force
The boys in blue get a healthy 5.8% budget increase this year, pushing their allocation to R2.6 billion. This is mostly to help cover the continuing costs of integrating the new aircraft into the fleet and training pilots and ground crew to operate them. Thus far, 12 of the 30 A109s and 11 of the 24 Hawk Mk.120s have been delivered and are in service, to be followed by another 12 A109s and 8 Hawks this year. Following on from the single Gripen already conducting its test flying and operational development program in the Cape, the next batch should be arriving toward the end of the year in preparation for their operational status being declared in 2008.

Looking to the future, the SAAF will begin receiving its new A400M airlifters from 2010 onwards, while the four SuperLynx 300 helicopters for the navy's frigates will all be delivered by the end of this year. However, the air force continues to experience a worrying exodus of skilled pilots, engineers and technicians. In response, it has implemented a package of higher pay levels and other incentives, but it's likely the situation will get worse before it gets better. This will impact negatively on the SAAF's ability to conduct deployments for the next few years, even though it is still capable of putting up impressive flypasts.

Navy
When the SANDF spends more on administration than it spends on the you, one can't help but get the notion that you're the least-favoured son. But then, the navy's always prided itself on doing more with less, so it's unlikely it will be too unhappy with its budgetary allocation for the year, which stands at R1.38 billion. With three of the new frigates already commissioned (with the fourth set to follow suit in March) and the second of three submarines currently on its delivery voyage, the navy is fairly close to completing its phase of the arms deal.

But it's not finished yet: Realising the value a properly-equipped navy can have in securing the peace throughout and around Africa, the service is angling for a significant expansion in its fleet. Not only are there concrete plans to acquire a fifth frigate, but in the next few years it wishes to acquire two amphibious landing ships, a replacement for its strike craft as well as upgraded missiles and guns for its frigates. At the moment, it looks likely that the navy's chiefs will get their wish, though there'll be a need to increase the navy's budget significantly if it is to operate these new ships effectively. The planned budget increase to R3.1 billion by 2009 will help, but it may not be enough.

Special Forces
For a unit that was virtually dead and disbanded just twelve years ago, the Special Forces Brigade really knows how to bounce back. Comprising a maritime unit (4 Special Forces Regiment) and a land and air unit (5 Special Forces Regiment), the Brigade has established itself as a necessary element of the force structure and a valuable tool during operations. And thanks to their placement under the SANDF's Force Employment section, they enjoy total independence from the army as well as their own separate budget of R198 million. As a representation of their growing importance within the military, the current budget is 52% higher than that allocated in the 2003/2004 budget and is set to increase by 29% to R256 million by 2010.

Part of the increase is going to an incentive scheme designed to encourage special forces operatives to remain within the unit rather than quitting for more lucrative jobs as security contractors in Iraq and elsewhere. This follows the example of Britain's SAS, which recently increased its salaries by 50% for the same reason. However much of the increased funds will go towards the procurement of specialised and expensive special operations equipment, such as the customised Wasp assault vehicles (called the Hornet by the SASF) that the unit has just acquired.

Peacekeeping
Continuing the trend from recent years, peacekeeping remains the SANDF's core deployment focus, with the cost of current deployments estimated to be R850 million this year. This may seem like a lot, but insofar as peacekeeping operations go it's actually fairly cheap and we've already seen immensely positive results emerge from our presence in Burundi and the DRC.

In the DRC's case, the SANDF plans to spend R402 million there this year, a slight increase over last year mainly due to the need to continue training and supporting the country's police and army as well as the need to ensure that the gains of last year's presidential elections are not reversed by the supporters of the losing candidate. By 2009, it's estimated that this mission will cost around R620 million, depending on the level of violence and instability in the country by then.

Burundi represents a rare African peacekeeping success case, which South Africa has been at the center of for the past five years. The country is peaceful enough that the UN peacekeeping mission for the country, ONUB, ended last year, allowing 800 SANDF soldiers to return home, though 500 SANDF soldiers remain in Burundi to protect the United Nations equipment and oversee the final shutdown of the mission. However in the meantime the army is sending a further 600 soldiers to the country to act as a protection unit for leaders of the country's National Liberation Forces, which was the last of the rebel Hutu movements to sign the cease-fire arrangement with the government. These soldiers will form the African Union Special Task Force once they arrive in Burundi and the mission will cost R310 million this year, decreasing to R140 million by 2008.

The only other major peacekeeping mission is the AU mission in Sudan, to which South Africa has contributed a few hundred troops. Last year, it cost us R95 million but the SANDF expects it to cost only R32 million this year, perhaps due to financial support from the West.

So, there you have it, the 2007/2008 Defence Budget and its background, or at least as much as I felt like writing.