sob wrote:
well if the other 4 or 5 countries that are part of the ACIRC provide a similar force we may be able to do something.
Only SADC ever conducted a full African stand by force exercise. The rest are just so fractured, poor, inept or a bad combination of all 3 to pull it of.
The SANDF will form the entirety of the ACIRC for the first standby period, which could be anything from three months to a year, depending on when or if the few other African countries who have signed up can contribute their own troops.
The original idea was that all the contributing countries would provide their commitments upfront, so that there would be a pool of 5000 troops to draw from and so that rotation periods could be as short as possible. But South Africa is the only country to have actually committed anything.
That raises the disturbing possibility that the ACIRC could be deployed to some awful conflict zone and not be rotated out because there are no follow-on forces ready to take over. Nor will there be sufficient airlift to remove those 1500 troops in a hurry.
On top of that, the ACIRC mandate is dangerously vague and confused with no clarity on which circumstances might justify its use. For instance, Uganda has already said that it wants to withdraw its forces from South Sudan, where they've been helping keep the peace to some extent, and that the AU will replace them with ACIRC forces. If that's true, it means ACIRC will not be a short-deployment rapid-reaction unit but will be a hugely expensive open-ended deployment for the SANDF in an area that lacks the supporting UN infrastructure.
Then there's the question of funding. It's now very clear that the AU doesn't have the money to pay for any part of ACIRC, so rather than wait until foreign donor funding could be secured South Africa has gone ahead and paid for the first period itself. That's apparently amounted to R4 billion in costs, all taken out of the already-overstretched defence budget, so far in training and force prep alone. A deployment may cost much more, again to be paid by the SANDF out of its own budget.
I agree that the ASF is flawed, what with the SADC Brigade being the only part to have done any real joint training and the final proving exercise (Amani Africa II) having been indefinitely postponed, but that should make us more cautious of concepts like the ACIRC. As a continent we clearly aren't yet ready to take on this level of commitment, so it would be far wiser to continue evolving the well-established ASF structures in order to first build capacity there. Only once we've proven that within the AU we can sustainably create real joint intervention forces can we think about something the size of ACIRC.