The SAAF Forum

The new SA Defence budget for 2025/26 has been released! Herewith a few comments upon initial (and very quick) review.

The total Dept of Defence budget for 2025/26 budget is R55.94 bn, an increase from the adjusted budget of R55 506.6bn in 2024/25. What does this mean? A /1

The SANDF has been allocated R55.94 bn for the 2025/26 financial year, reflecting a modest increase of R434.1 m from the revised R55.51 bn allocated in 2024/25. This represents a 0.78% nominal increase from the R55.51 billion allocated in 2024/25.

ABSOLUTE DISASTER FOR THE SANDF!!! /2

However, with an inflation rate of 4.4% in 2024, this increase falls well below inflation, effectively reducing the real purchasing power of the budget.

This is BAD. /3

This equates to 0.80% of GDP, considered very low for military spending relative to international benchmarks. This can still be viewed as a DISASTER for the #SANDF and its abilities to carry out its missions. The Dep Min had constantly stated it would be increased to 1.5%! /4

In real terms, the SANDF budget for 2025/26 has been reduced by approximately 3.47% after adjusting for inflation. /5

Compensation of employees remains the main spending area, accounting for 65.51% (prev 64.8%) of total expenditure. The budget for compensation of employees remains constrained. The DoD will target 4,000 members of the SANDF in a government-wide early retirement programme. /6

R34.7 million is allocated over the medium term to cover expenses associated with the appointment of an additional deputy minister of defence and military veterans. This is to cover the second Dep Minister appointed under the GNU, but not budgeted for. /7

Over the next 3 years, R5 bn has been allocated to the Department of Defence to support South Africa’s participation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and to supplement existing peace keeping activities. /8

How are the various programs are impacted:
Admin: Up by R230.7m (4.11%)
Force Employment: Down by R1518m (25.71%)
Land: Up by R669.2m (3.94%)
Air: Up by R175.6m (2.5%)
Maritime: Up by R234.5m (5.4%)
Military Health Support: Up by R322.8m (5.55%)
Intel: Up by R55.8m (4.95%) /9

Air Defence: 2025/26 allocation: R6.87 bn (up from R6.70 bn in 2024/25). Increase of 2.5%, below inflation, suggesting real-term budget stagnation or reduction.
Key challenge: The number of flight hours remains at 12,000 annually, only just over half was achieved last year. /10

Helicopter Capability is down by R110.1m (12.1%)
Transport & Maritime is up by R116.3m (23.48%)
Air Combat is up by R31.9m (4.91%)
Operational Support & Intel is up by R7.1m (4.16%)
Training is up by R22m (4.76%) /11

The heli line, critical for supporting troops in the DRC, maritime and the citizens within SA, even less is allocated! Very few helis are currently operational. With no maritime aircraft, transport sees an increase, hopefully for maintenance and parts, now sorely lacking. /12

Maritime Defence: 2025/26 allocation: R4.68 bn (up from R4.44 bn in 2024/25). Increase of 5.4%, slightly above inflation. Maritime patrol hours are projected to remain stable at 8,000 annually, only a third of that was achieved last year.
/13

Combat up by R47.9m (5.23%)
Logistic Support is up by R61.8m (4.13%)
HR & Training is up by R35.4m (6.18%)
Base Support is up by R51.1m (8.04%)

Already unable to maintain its current fleet, expect this trend to continue. /14

Landward Defence: 2025/26 allocation: R17.66 bn (up from R16.99 bn in 2024/25). Increase of 3.9%, slightly below inflation. This budget suggests maintenance rather than enhancement of capabilities. /15

Force Employment (External and Internal Operations): 2025/26 allocation: R5.90 bn (down from R7.42 bn in 2024/25). Decrease of 20.5%, indicating reduced commitments to regional peacekeeping & internal deployments. /16

Defence Intelligence: 2025/26 allocation: R1.18 bn (up from R1.13bn in 2024/25). /17

The Def Force relies on the Reserve Force to provide boots on the ground for int deployments. Without them, the Army simply cannot function. The other arms also rely on RF members. # of RF person days/yr is 1.998m, same as the est perf in 2024/25. In 23/24 it was 3.3m! /18

The number of personnel in each programme. Total funded is 71 654 (24/25 71 051):
Admin: 4 014
Force Employment: 2 385
Land: 35 612
Air: 9 172
Maritime: 6 123
Military Health Support: 6 873
Intel: 1 041
General support: 6 434
A slight increase, despite vol retirement progs. /19

Personnel and Compensation Constraints: Personnel costs are 65.1% of total defence budget, indicating continued strain. Plans for 4,000 early retirements suggest efforts to control headcount and costs, but will impact ability to deliver. /20
Over the next three years, R66.5 million is allocated for oversight of Denel, which has now been placed under the Department of Defence following the closure of the Department of Public Enterprises. /21

To maintain its real value, the budget should have inc to at least R57.94 bn (R55.51 bn + 4.4%). Instead, the shortfall of approx R2 bn means that, in real terms, the SANDF has less money than previous years to cover operational costs, salaries, maintenance, and procurement. /22

Air and Maritime Defence remain underfunded, affecting operational readiness. Personnel costs dominate the budget, leaving little room for modernisation. /23

Force Employment sees a cut, which could reduce South Africa’s peacekeeping and border security effectiveness. Overall, the budget prioritises maintaining existing forces rather than upgrading them. /24

Real military inflation is a lot higher ... really depressing reading. The Air Force has a target of 12 000 hrs/yr, the Navy of 8 000 sea hours. Highly doubt that either will reach it in the current year. /25

And I didn't even mention about the lack of funding for new and upgraded equipment and systems to support our troops. The South African soldier must be severely disappointed by their Commander in Chief, as is every citizen concerned with the state of the SANDF. /26

I'm tired. Been a long afternoon of figures and disappointment. A FAILURE FOR THE DEFENCE FORCE. Apologies for any errors or omissions. I'm sure there are other informative comments and I look forward to reading them. /27

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How come every time my ship comes in, I'm at the airport?

I just caught it while passing by, but he did mention something about renewal of equipment while speaking of the defence budget.

Just talk talk

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How come every time my ship comes in, I'm at the airport?

Bloody idiots can chop the deputy ministers, don't need them, can also cut the fat from the SANDF structures (all those fatcat brigadiers/generals).

Expect another spanking in the DRC which the government insists on being involved in.

Rwanda has got some modern drones and MANPADS which the SANDF will be ill equipped to counter.

Potential R11.7 Billion Boost for the SANDF

By Dean Wingrin

Despite the severely constrained Defence budget tabled last week, the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) could potentially receive an additional R11.7 billion, contingent on meeting specific criteria.

While the SANDF possesses a well-articulated National Defence Policy, as outlined in the 2015 Defence Review, this policy was predicated on sustained and adequate funding. Despite Cabinet approval and Parliamentary endorsement, this funding did not materialise, leading to a significantly weakened SANDF with diminished defence capabilities. This has had knock-on effects, including a shrinking and fragmented defence industry, notably the decline of Denel.

The Department of Defence (DoD) budget cut in the 2021 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) was so drastic that it resulted in a substantial maintenance backlog, depleted stock levels, delayed short-term maintenance contracts, and an inability to conduct mid-life upgrades. This impacted the availability of prime mission equipment across land, air, and sea domains. Capabilities were systematically impaired, and this downward trend continues.

Since the adoption of the Defence Review in the 2016/17 financial year, the Defence Force has experienced baseline cuts of R39.4 billion. Accounting for inflation, this represents a staggering R41.58 billion reduction in real terms.

Notably, the DoD budget was reduced by R4.5 billion in the 2021/22 financial year, on top of the already R5 billion reduction of the Strategic Defence Account (SDA) in December 2020. Furthermore, the budget has been systematically reduced in each subsequent year.

The recently released DoD budget for 2025/26 is R55.94 billion, a nominal "increase" of only 0.78% from the 2024/25 adjusted budget. In real terms, after adjusting for the 2024 inflation rate of 4.4%, the SANDF budget for 2025/26 has been reduced by approximately 3.47%, effectively diminishing its real purchasing power. It is worth noting that military inflation is significantly higher.

Compensation of employees (CoE) remains the primary expenditure, accounting for 65.51% of the total budget.
The continued budget reductions have severely compromised the SANDF's defence capabilities, hindering its ability to support South Africa's continental leadership role and to fully meet its constitutional obligations.

The 2025 Budget outlines the government's medium-term spending plans through the MTEF, which details three-year spending projections.

In addition to the meagre core DoD budget for 2025/26, an extra R5 billion over the medium term has been allocated to support the deployment of SANDF troops in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (SAMIDRC under Operation Thiba).

This R5 billion is allocated as follows: R1.8 billion in 2025/26, R1.7 billion in 2026/27, and R1.5 billion in 2027/28.
If the SAMIDRC mission is terminated, as announced on 13 March 2025, this R5 billion funding will be withdrawn. However, mission withdrawal does not eliminate costs. Funds will still be required to cover SANDF expenses until all troops and equipment are repatriated to South Africa, with the chartering of logistic flights being a significant expense.

Any unspent funds could be reclaimed by National Treasury, and the DoD risks losing the remaining R5 billion allocation. These funds could be used for critical maintenance and equipment acquisition for the Air Force and Navy. The DoD and the defence industry should actively lobby for the retention of these funds, before social society decides otherwise.

Furthermore, the 2025 MTEF includes R800 million per year for the SANDF's contribution to the United Nations (UN) MONUSCO mission in the DRC (Operation Mistral).

It is understood that the DoD receives approximately R550 million annually from the UN as reimbursement for expenses. National Treasury has traditionally allocated this amount to the DoD during the adjustment budget.

The 2025/26 Budget also includes provisional allocations over the MTEF period, subject to departmental plans and programmes being updated and specific conditions being met.

Over the years, the Auditor-General of South Africa (AGSA) has highlighted numerous instances of irregular expenditure, largely attributed to CoE due to underfunding of the wage bill.

The DoD overspent on CoE by R3.466 billion in 2023/24, an increase from the R2.875 billion overspending in 2022/23, despite interventions such as the Mobility Exit Mechanism (MEM). These amounts remain as irregular expenditure as they have not been condoned by National Treasury.

Although the DoD has implemented CoE cost-saving measures, these have not yielded significant savings. This is despite the capping of allowances and the recent exit of 1,377 soldiers through MEM and the civilian Employee Initiated Severance Package. The average SANDF HR capacity as of 31 March 2024 was 68,278 (compared to 69,359 the previous year), representing a reduction of 1,939 personnel due to normal and induced attrition.

A reduction in Reserve Force utilisation was not achieved in 2023/24 due to operational requirements, resulting in R1.052 billion higher than planned spending.

In this context, the 2025 Budget includes an additional R6.774 billion provisional allocation to the DoD, outside the main Defence vote, to address the CoE shortfall permanently.

These funds are provisionally allocated as follows: R2.500 billion in 2025/26, R2.090 billion in 2026/27, and R2.184 billion in 2027/28.

Access to this funding is contingent on participation in the early retirement initiative, with conditions such as minimum age of each applicant and each application has received executive authority approval.

The DoD will aim for 4,000 SANDF members to participate in the government-wide early retirement programme.

This funding is dependent on the DoD developing a rejuvenation strategy and participating in the early retirement programme to reduce unit CoE costs.

Critically, departments may retain savings from this initiative, using them to address CoE pressures and support capacity building. Thus, these funds could also be used to modernise systems and equipment in the Air Force, Navy, and Army.

Under consolidated government expenditure, the Peace and Security cluster, which includes the DoD, will see an increase from R250.4 billion in 2024/25 to R287 billion in 2027/28. This increase primarily funds SANDF troop deployment in the DRC, enhances judiciary capacity, and prepares for the 2026 local government elections.

To support the 2026 local government elections, R1.4 billion is allocated for 2026/27, with R885 million for the Independent Electoral Commission, R400 million for the South African Police Service, and R150 million to the DoD for logistical and security support.

While the core DoD budget is concerning, there are a few spots of light in the darkness, but these hinge on Parliamentary approval of the budget. Without the budget being passed, the provisional allocations will fall away.

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How come every time my ship comes in, I'm at the airport?