The SAAF Forum

Russia Signs Military Cooperation Deal with Iran

"Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehqan told state television that Iran and Russia had a “shared analysis of US global strategy, its interference in regional and international affairs and the need to cooperate in the struggle against the interference of foreign forces in the region". (The Times of Israel)

So, is this how things are shaping up?

http://www.timesofisrael.com/russia-and ... tion-deal/

http://www.ibtimes.com/russia-iran-expa ... us-1788410

The ink has barely dried on the signature line and already there seems to be discord after a renewed fumbling friendship of less than 24 hours between Russia and Iran.

Initially all the right coo-coo noises were made as befits two newlyweds, even when both partners realize that it is more a marriage of convenience than true love. An extract from EurasiaNet, a nice middle-of-the-road news agency:-

"Shoigu's visit was the first to Iran by a Russian defense minister in 15 years, and both sides played up the potential geopolitical import of the trip. "Iran and Russia are able to confront the expansionist intervention and greed of the United States through cooperation, synergy and activating strategic potential capacities," said Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan. "The visit to Tehran is a geopolitical movement towards an alliance between Russia and Iran," wrote Rossiya Segodnya analyst Aleksandr Khrolenko".

Full report:-

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/71691

Then after some good old-fashioned investigative journalism - the grandees will call it forensic analysis - I came across this treasure-trove of tittle-tattle in The Moscow Times, which is a more in-your-face publication. And they always tell the truth ....

"Mistrust Dogs Russia-Iran Arms Talks as Shoigu Heads for Tehran" says the headline.

Mistrust .... already !

In short - the Russians still owe the Iranians delivery of the S-300 missile system from 2010. For various reasons this has never been delivered, after five years and counting. The lengthy article goes on explaining the intricacies of this renewed relationship, and then ....

"Although Shoigu (Russian Defence Minister) may be able to facilitate the development of non-lethal hardware — such as radar systems sold by Russia's largest defense contractor, Almaz-Antey — a breakthrough in arms sales to Iran will likely evade him until Russia can demonstrate to Tehran that it is capable of honoring contracts".

" .... capable of honoring contracts".

Full report:-

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/ ... 14581.html

Somewhere else there is also a story about honouring contracts ....

If they do end up cooperating, it will probably take some time to sort out these differences. These two countries have had a rather stormy relationship in the best of times. Although there was some cooperation during the cold war, the Iranians were particularly upset that USSR was selling weapons to Iraq during the Iran/Iraq war. Also, Khomeini wasn't too keen about the USSR communist ideals which he saw incompatible with the ideals of Islam. Only after the end of the cold war did the relationship become a bit more cordial, but then Russia failed to deliver on various contracts for military hardware due to an agreement between Russia and the USA, which again created a rift between the two countries.

The S-300 situation has a similar background. From the Wikipedia article:

Unlike previous years in which Iran's air fleet were entirely western made, Iran's Air Force and civilian air fleet are increasingly becoming domestically and Russian built as the US and Europe continues to maintain sanctions on Iran. In 2010, Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment led the UN to pass a new resolution, number 1929 to vote for new sanctions against Iran which bans the sale of all types of heavy weaponry (including missiles) to Iran. This resulted in the cancellation of the delivery of the S-300 system to Iran: In September 2010 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has signed a decree banning the delivery of S-300 missile systems, armored vehicles, warplanes, helicopters and ships to Iran. This may cause the loss of $13 billion in arms sales to Iran and force Iran to depend on China for arms in the future according to Igor Korotchenko. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad also criticised Russia for kowtowing to the United States. As a result of the cancellation, Iran brought suit against Russia in Swiss court and in response to the lawsuit Russia threatened to withdraw diplomatic support for Iran in the nuclear dispute.



As noted, it is not "already" - it is exactly this mistrust that made their renewed cooperation newsworthy.



It is not for "various reasons" - it is because of the UN resolution and associated agreements between Russia and the USA (as well as other Western countries).

Once again I am very disappointed about the current diplomatic relationship between Russia and "Western Countries". I would much rather see cooperation between Russia and Europe, for example, than between Russia and Iran. As I stated in a previous post, it is much easier to influence your friends than your enemies. It is exactly what we saw here: As long as Russia had a good relationship with Europe and the USA, they were willing to set lucrative contracts like the S-300 deal aside in order to maintain that relationship. Now that motivation is mostly gone.

Music to my ears - it is very similar to how I see Russia and the EU in terms of mutually respected co-existence and good neighbourliness. If only it was possible.

Wherever I travel, and I travel quite a bit, if the opportunity arises around a table or in some venue conducive to good conversation, I put this point of view. If the underlying reasons of animosity (Crimea and the Donbas) were absent, the economic muscle and clout of a Russia / EU mutually beneficial arrangement, would be unparalleled. Russia and the EU had a brief very good working relationship during the tenure of Dmitry Medvedev as President of Russia. Sadly, the Putin regime changed all that.

Well, of course there are many that would claim that it had pretty much been a "Putin regime" all the time, even when Medvedev was president However, you are right, that was a pretty stable and good period for Russian/EU relations. In fact, I think that positive relationship continued during most of the current Putin presidency, and only started falling apart during the Maidan demonstrations last year.

As I also mentioned before: I have worked on a research project that was EU hosted but that had South African and Russian participants, and among the scientists and engineers the mutual relationship was excellent. The Russians pulled more than their weight in the project also, and were very highly regarded by the rest. I am also aware of many other but similar projects (mostly in the aerospace field) with the same mutually beneficial outcome. I think both the EU and Russia can gain a lot from that type of cooperation. I know you think the Mistral cooperation was a big mistake by both sides, but that particular project also grew out of various other previous, successful projects between France and other EU countries and Russia.

Everyone knows the Ukrainian situation is the big elephant in the room at the moment, but I think a lot of people, including myself, are hoping that relations can be restored eventually. I think there are bigger, more global problems that need to be tackled (of course, one cannot understate the seriousness of the Ukrainian situation). For example, Russia's experience fighting terrorism, its proximity to the Middle East, influence with certain Middle Eastern countries and not to mention that many fighters are of Chechen origin, could make it an important contributor to the global fight against extremism. As I understand it, even now they contribute behind the scenes with intelligence in this area, but I am sure better diplomatic relations with the West will also improve cooperation between security services. And that is just one example.

I say Mfezi, it's like we are reading from the same page of the same book. That last paragraph of yours is exactly my summation of things.

Yes, I know the rumours (arrangement bordering on fact maybe) that Medvedev was in a way controlled by Putin .... has Medvedev any future prospects as regards the Presidency? And this time round be his own man?

The longer the mess continues in the Donbas the nearer we get to something much worse.

Russia and North Korea keep getting closer. (Headline Business Insider [22 Jan 2015) quoting RIA Novosti)

"The two nations will set up a bilateral business council, which will "improve the interaction of North Korean and Russian business communities," the vice president of the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry Vladimir Strashko said at a conference chaired by the head of Russia's Ministry for the Development of the Far East, according to RIA Novosti".

Read more: http://uk.businessinsider.com/russia-no ... z3PdGvQrld

This must be a desperate measure for what is becoming a definitive example of Vladimir-no-mates. The desperateness of Putin's Russia is reflected in the opening line of that first sentence -

- "... improve the interaction of North Korean and Russian business communities, ..."

What business between two countries so hamstrung by sanctions and struggling economies?

From an open door working relationship with the EU, Russia's immediate nearest neigbours, to North Korea - desperation!

- What is the matter with Putin?
- What is going wrong inside the Russian government?

North Korea distracts some attention from Putin's Russia, as is Iran, ISIS etc.

I'm sure it is in not in Putin's interest to have the two Korea's unite as in the case of Germany, so help N. Korea out.

Well love a duck because what may follow next will absolutely take the biscuit - it's beyond desperation.

If the President of Russia, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, has any self respect left, he needs to see or be made to realise the utter pathetic sight of him grandstanding with .... wait for it ....

Kim Jong Un the Leader of North Korea

.... who may visit Moscow in May this year.

"Russia received a positive initial signal from North Korea after President Vladimir Putin invited its leader Kim Jong Un to attend anniversary celebrations of the Soviet victory over Germany in World War II, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said".

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/arti ... 14697.html

Putin's life and times is fast becoming a sordid tale of squandered opportunities. Russia does not deserve this.

You don't think it might be those very sanctions forcing them to explore other avenues or re-establish old contacts, just like the case between them and Iran? The USSR and North Korea obviously had a very close relationship from 1948 onwards, but after the fall of the USSR things went pretty much cold.

I wonder how far they will take it though? I doubt this is going to be very popular among the general population of Russia. From Wikipedia:

Favorable perceptions of North Korea in Russia are gradually declining, with only 34% of Russians viewing North Korea as a friendly nation and 60% of Russians believing that North Korea's nuclear arms pose a threat to other countries; only 8% of Russians favor supporting North Korea in a potential conflict. According to a 2014 BBC World Service Poll, 19% of Russians view North Korea's influence positively, with 37% expressing a negative view.


Well, technically, North Korea is also Russia's immediate neigbour, since the two share a border

Yes Mfezi.

With which of the neighbours would you rather do business? I know you get my drift!

Now here's something to ponder and it is BREAKING NEWS from the World Economic Forum in Davos:-

Ukraine crisis: Angela Merkel 'offers Russia free trade deal for peace'.

Full article:-

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... peace.html

This development will receive more coverage in the next few hours as things become clearer on the detail.

Hats off to Angela Merkel for her perseverance and patience with Putin.

Definitely not with North Korea, and I think Putin and the Russian government also feel the same. I used the word "forced" ("forcing" actually) intentionally.



Very interesting news. Through this whole situation, Germany (and Angela Merkel by implication) always did seem to take quite a mature stance: Firm, but without closing the door for negotiations. One big concern that I have is how much control Russia actually has over the separatists. You do get the impression from various reports that the separatists are not really listening to anyone anymore. On the other hand, Russia really is their only ally and if it cuts off all support and take a hardline stance, the isolation may force them to look for a peaceful solution as soon as possible.

Holding thumbs for a positive response on this one. It certainly sounds like a big carrot!

Without Russian support the separatists are nothing. Without those Russian 'volunteers' and fancy weapons the separatists are more than nothing.

I don't want to get bogged down on the Ukraine in this thread - Ukraine has its own thread.

My synopsis from here onwards - I know its very early in this development:-

- Putin must get on his plane and fly to Berlin
- Merkel and Putin must sign a MoU (Memorandum of Understanding)
- Both go back to their parliaments and sort the detail. Merkel needs to put the case to the EU as well - it should be fine.
- Implement the Minsk Protocol asap

With the Protocol in place all stakeholders get back to work in normalising lives and relationships. We need statesmanship, a positive attitude and a forward (not backward) looking view.

Mmmmm.
I don't think that carrot will work with Putin, he thinks in the Soviet style with KGB suspicion, everyone is out to get at Russia. Carrot may be laced with poison.
Pressure must come from within.
Economic impact due to sanctions I would think is a major force.
If Russians go home in body bags and it comes out, perhaps Russian citizens will be asking "What for"?

Valid point jeffreynic.

The ball is now firmly in Putin's court, let's see how he plays it. I hope he understands that he will get no better opportunity than this!