The SAAF Forum

... Have you only noticed that now?




I do wonder if that concept is on the table. Western Ukraine including Lviv (as defined by current Kruschev created borders) was part of historic Poland. What if Poland was offered that part in exchange for leaving NATO for good. Same deals can be proposed to Slovakia Hungary and Romania who all had land taken from them after the 2nd world war, or in Hungary's case the 1st world war.

An indication of the Russian military command’s failure to achieve objectives and to conquer what they thought would be a walk in the park, is evidenced by the death of four Russian generals in the space of only three weeks. In a confined battlespace, these high profile deaths is indicative of failure of the highest order.

1. Major General Andrei Sukhovetsky, highly decorated, killed 28 Feb, shot by a sniper near Mariupol
2. Major General Vitaly Gerasimov 8 March
3. Major General Andrei Kolesnikov 11 March
4. Major General Oleg Mityaev died on 15 March near the port city of Mariupol

The UK Ministry of Defence issues regular, concise to the point, updates on the war in Ukraine, this one dated 16 March:-

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I believe a Chechen general was also killed.

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How come every time my ship comes in, I'm at the airport?

I cannot agree that that is concise or to the point. It's the vaguest list that looks like it comes off media talking points. If I were in any military (and I have done my share of military service) I wouldn't give that any credence. As they say, truth is the first casualty of war and none of it has appeared anywhere. I fear this is pep talk politics as usual coming from BoJo's press dept.

I have heard it reported that unlike American generals, the Russian officers lead from the front. That may be an explanation. I do remember reading 2nd world war histories citing how many British Generals got killed or captured, Richard O'Conner being one of the most senior and high profile during the desert war. I'm not sure but I think more British generals were lost in combat than American ones. Very different styles of warfare and leadership. Also a Major General is the most junior of the General ranks. (except the Americans where a Brigadier is called a Brigadier General. Status inflation I guess._) Junior Generals i would expect to be closer to the action as a matter of course.

Just a guess, but the more more mobile the action the more risk i think the senior officers are. At the same time reports coming through the media are about the Russian army being bogged down? Not exactly consistent. But none of us can judge unless we have insight into the plan and objectives. Most of the media armchair generals give one view. Scott Ritter and Doug MacGregor give very different views.
Time will tell, but the Ukraine govt is negotiating and the pressure is on. Note how Zelensky flipflops just before he talks to US politicians when he thinks there is hope for more support. I don't think its coming and he'll feel the pressure to negotiate again.

Oh and when I say Zelensky, he is not the real leader, any more than Joe Biden is the US govt leader. The puppet master is actually Igor Kolomoisky, aided and abetted by the US state dept., who is sit back quite safe in Switzerland surrounded by his ill gotten gains.

P.S. I did a quick search and found a discussion forum where some numbers were posted on General Officer casualties in the 2nd world war. Both German and Russian numbers are around 300. British , about 30 and American 11. Even accounting for the time and scale of the different theatres, that is a very different rate.

The plastic veneer of invincibility is cracking and the domino's are tumbling as regards Putin's war of aggresion ...

- Various news outlets are reporting the dismissal of General Roman Gavrilov, the deputy head of the Russian National Guard, amid claims he had 'leaked information' and 'squandered' much needed fuel. A script so familiar from the Russian playbook of losers in high office ...

- There are also emerging reports of discontent between Putin and the current head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina. She is an accomplished economist and well respected in western financial institutions. Sanctions are biting ...

References to both individuals are easily found on international media with basic 'Googling'.

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In the fog of war its difficult to know exactly what's going on, but one thing I am sure of is that the news media know nothing and feeding us BS. I'm a neutral observer but I try to get a balance from looking at various sources. Neutral except that I have no sympathy for the Azov Battalion thugs that infest the Ukrainian army and they will get what's coming to them. It's hard for them to hide because so many of them have nazi tattoos on their bodies. Men trying to escape though the humanitarian corridors are made to lift up their shirts to see if they have any giveaway tattoos. Silliness on their part, of course.

One cannot tell the future from history but several things give a guide. I often look to 2nd world war precedents. Generals were sacked at alarming rates on all sides. Even Patton was sidelined for a year because he assaulted some of his troops. Churchill sacked Wavel and Auchinleck, even after Auchinleck had done most of the work preparing the ground for El Alamein. The Americans were successful probably because they sacked their generals so often. In Korea McArthur was sack because he overstepped his authority. In Vietnam Westmoreland should have been sacked but the Americans seemed to have forgotten that lesson and now they have an idiot called Milley.




She resigned her post but Putin reappointed her. Interpret that how you will.

It also appears to me that the speed with which Russia and China implemented cooperation with Union Pay after Visa and MC pulled out of Russia means that was an expected move that Russia was ready to counter. They also made debt interest payments on time even though their foreign reserves were impounded. They could legally have called Force Majeur but they chose to honour their debts. Methinks sanctions have backfired.

Take all those together and we can see that the US has blown international trust in their financial system while Russia does nothing to betray any trust in theirs. Germany is now going to suffer shortages because they towed the American line and now they are regretting it and have refused any further sanctions. Another clue that the sanctions are unravelling is the US going begging to Iran and Venezuela for oil and BoJo visiting the Saudis for the same purpose and coming back empty. Quite embarrassing actually.

The fog of war is still as thick as ever, but some interesting clearings reveal some interesting things. My main takeaway is that the much vaunted western high tech weapons don't work as advertised and the new Russian stuff does. The Javelin seems to be a dud. The Kalibr and Khinzal work against any defense and are pinpoint accurate. The Russians invaded a country with a western supplied defense force of (reportedly) 600 000 men with a smaller force of only 200 000 (including the Donbass militia) and now appear to be on the verge of victory. I guess it will take a while to find out how.

I have a small insight to Russian capability in that way back when (-30 years odd) when I was still in SA a friend who was working in EW for Grinel at the time desperately wanted to get his hands on Russian radar since he knew how good it was compared to western stuff at the time. A lot of it was based on "old fashioned" vacuum tubes, but they are immune to EMP. And of course remember in 1999 the Serbians managed to shoot down an F-117 stealth aircraft. That was an impressive feat giving a clue to Russian capability at the time.

https://thesaker.is/sitrep-operation-z/

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/some-importnat-issues-not-covered-in.html?m=1

All of this is bad news for NATO, whose weapons and tactics have been tested (the opportunity they appeared to want and precipitate) and who now have to go back to the drawing board. Very definitely they will not get directly involved right now.

Dream on ...

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Not dreaming, just observing.

Of course it's very possible that I may be wrong in the fog of war, Much of the fog is deliberate. Maskirovka is a very old tactic. Time will tell and then we'll see.

More than 6 months into Putin's war of aggression, plunder, looting, human misery and worse. No achievement of goals for his so-called "special military operation", can't even occupy the Donbas. A war of humiliation for the Russian military!

A disaster of a military campaign watched by millions, every day, on news media.

Now let's hear the Putin apologists ...

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Wars are won on the operational and political level. The tactical level is merely a sideshow and one has to look more carefully at what is really happening rather than believe the western propaganda.

Since 2014 Russia and the Donbass militia successfully held off NATO trained and supported Nazi regime that came to power in the Maidan coup. In the process the Russians and the Donbass militia have depleted the Ukranian armed forces at a ratio of about 10 to 1. The real tragedy is the Ukraine is a US stooge and the US is fighting to the last Ukranian. The Ukranians wanted to see reason at the talks in Turkey in March but the US didn't let them.

Why do so many Ukrainian soldiers have to die to support the waning US hegemony? 100 000 so far and counting.

On the geopolitical front 5 Oblasts of the former Ukranian SSR are now firmly returned to Russia, where they have always belonged. The people there are Russian and want to be Russian. What the people there want should be everyone's moral objective.

The future looks clear and Russia will also regain Odessa and Kharkov and probably most of the territory east of the Dnieper. Ukraine will become a rump state, denazified and demilitarised, but left nominally independent unless the barmy poles want that slice of Galicia back and then more chaos will ensue.

So, it took you more than a month to come up with that paltry bit of waffle, in some vain attempt to defend a humiliated and retreating Russian military! You have been on this site numerous times in the past month (yes I do know) and you blather on with that bit of hoo-haa.

As I said before - dream on! My emoticons are unchanged.
Dream on ...

PS: When are you joining the Putin militia, they need conscripts to defend what remains of the Kerch bridge, before it all falls into the water.

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@tally-ho, I'm telling you the future. You don't have to believe me, just wait and see. The nazis will lose.

The war is more than just the military action in Ukraine. Russia is gaining in the economic war against the collective west quite handily as well. Europe is going to freeze and have serious energy shortages this winter and they brought it on themselves.

- You are telling me the future? That is as misguided as the primitive Soviet era rockets and missiles used by the Russians.
- The Nazis were comprehensively defeated in 1945. Your Putin infused speak of ‘nazis’ is indicative of a bankruptcy in intelligent discourse.
- “Europe … brought it on themselves” - what? Russia invades the Ukraine and it’s Europe’s fault?

What next bit of mad vlad humour have you got?

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One has to understand the history and calling the Feb 2022 action an invasion is a total misunderstanding of the situation. The US has been meddling in both Russia and Ukraine since the dissolution of the soviet Union.

The Maidan coup of 2014 was orchestrated by the US state dept, in particular one Victoria Nuland and her husband Robert Kagan (of the "think tank" project for the new American Century" The instutute for the study of war founded by one Kimberly Kagan is also involved so never believe any of the propaganda coming out of that either. Its really ironic that they made use of the Banderite nazis to effect that coup and now the Ukraine regime is beholden to those very nazis. If Ukraine makes statues to Stepan Bandera , names streets after him and calls him a national hero, they are Nazi's; no argument.

Victoria Nuland's grandfather was one Meyer Nudelman, a jew who fled the 1907 pogrom in Bessarabia (now moldova) so she carries an ancestral visceral hatred of all things Russian. Ukraine is a mere proxy for trying to get at Russia in anyway possible. Ukraine was being armed and trained by the US to retake the Donbass and then Join Nato. This is understandably a red line for the Russians. The Donbass war has been going on for 8 years and 14000 Donbass civilians have died in those 8 years. The AFU was building up for a final push in Donbass when the Russians pre-emted them in February. The Ukrainians could have had peace if they implemented the Minsk accords but they were stalling and playing for time to get a total victory over Donbass and all the ethnic cleansing that that would have entailed.

So on the military front the Russians, using only about a third of the forces available to that of Ukraine had managed to prevent the final reconquest of Donbass and get most of Kherson and Zaporizhzia as well. The Ukrainians had the opportunity to make peace but they blew it. They will suffer the consequences now, but the real culprits are the American and British instigators who prevented that opportunity for peace.