Thanks to the many COVID-related upheavals of 2020/1, 2021 was the worst year in the history of Durban, South Africa's King Shaka International Airport (KSIA) with regards to Foreign-Based Scheduled Passenger Operator (FBSPO) operations. 2022 was hoped to be a year of consolidation and partial recovery and so it proved to be with a 102% increase in FBSPO total actual arrivals recorded over the equivalent period in 2021.
Clinton Barnard analyses the gradual progress of the FBSPOs on their way back from the brink for the year that was.
The late start of operations, by both then extant Durban-bound FBSPOs, Emirates and Qatar Airways, meant that 2022 was never going to be a record year as far as total arrivals is concerned. At best, both could only hope for improvements on the previous two COVID years and hope to set the foundations for a more representative 2023.
Starting from April 24, select FBSPOs that usually operate Johannesburg as destination point, began to extend their route to Durban on some of their flights to convey international delegates, from Europe and other areas, to partake in the Africa Travel Indaba 2022 held in Durban from May 2-5.
Four FBSPOs either made diversions to Durban from their usual Johannesburg turn point or put on special scheduled flights specifically for the occasion, albeit all routing from Johannesburg. The last departures were recorded on May 18, presumably since delegates enjoyed extended tours in the country to take advantage of already being here for the Indaba. The confirmed additional flights were:
^ Turkish Airlines (total of 5 arrivals from April 24 to May 6) using the Airbus A330-300;
^ Air Seychelles (total of 2 arrivals from April 30 to May 2) using the Airbus A320-251N;
^ Lufthansa (total of 10 arrivals from May 3 – 12) using Boeing 747-830;
^ Swiss (total of 9 arrivals from May 6 - 18) using Airbus A340-313.
Note 1: It is unknown whether further delegates arrived on aircraft of the two extant FBSPOs, Qatar Airways and Emirates, during this time, although no additional flights were put on by them.
Note 2: None of the above flights have been included in the annual statistics below.
TABLE 1: SAMPLE WEEKLY FBSPO SCHEDULED ARRIVALS FREQUENCIES AT KSIA (1 to 31.12.2022)
| Monday | Tuesday | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Saturday | Sunday |
| Emirates | Emirates | Emirates | Emirates | Emirates | Emirates | Emirates |
| - | - | - | Turkish Airlines | - | Turkish Airlines | - |
| Qatar Airways | - | Qatar Airways | - | Qatar Airways | - | Qatar Airways |
From the above Table, which is representative of the busiest time of the year for commercial aviation at KSIA, it is apparent that Tuesdays were the quietest days with all other days equally busy with a total of two FBSPO arrivals daily.
Weekly actual arrivals frequencies, over the course of the year, averaged nine through to eleven and finally 13 excluding the above Indaba arrivals, still a far cry from an average of 28 scheduled weekly arrivals pre-COVID and the all-time record of 38 earlier that year (2020).
TABLE 2: FBSPO TOTAL ACTUAL WEEKLY ARRIVALS FREQUENCIES AT KSIA FOR 2022
| FBSPO | SUSTAINED ACTUAL WEEKLY ARRIVALS FREQUENCIES |
| Emirates | 5, 7 and 12 |
| Turkish Airlines | 2 |
| Qatar Airways | 4 |
TABLE 3: MULTIPLES OF TOTAL ACTUAL WEEKLY SCHEDULED ARRIVALS BY FBSPO AT KSIA FOR 2022
<table>
<tr>
<th>TOTAL ACTUAL WEEKLY SCHEDULED FBSPO ARRIVALS</th>
<th>MULTIPLE</th>
<th>REMARKS</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2</td>
<td>29</td>
<td>Turkish Airlines</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>49</td>
<td>Qatar Airways</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>5</td>
<td>27</td>
<td>Emirates</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>7</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>Emirates</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>4</td>
<td>Emirates</td>
</tr>
</table>
Note: No two of the three extant FBSPOs flew the same arrivals frequencies at any time during the course of the year!
TABLE 4: FBSPO PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN BY AIRCRAFT TYPE AT KSIA FOR 2022:
<table>
<tr>
<td>FBSPO</td>
<td>TOTAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS</td>
<td>TOTAL ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS</td>
<td>AIRCRAFT</td>
<td>TOTAL ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE</td>
<td>% TOTAL ACTUAL FBSPO ARRIVALS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Emirates</td>
<td>303</td>
<td>302</td>
<td>B777-200LR</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>B777-300ER</td>
<td>301</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Turkish Airlines</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>58</td>
<td>A330-300ER</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>A350-941</td>
<td>47</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Qatar Airways</td>
<td>201</td>
<td>201</td>
<td>B777-200LR</td>
<td>109</td>
<td>36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>B777-300ER</td>
<td>92</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total</td>
<td>562</td>
<td>561</td>
<td></td>
<td>561</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
</table>
With 561 total actual arrivals achieved by the close of 2022 by the three extant FBSPOs, this was more the double the total of only 275 actual arrivals achieved during 2021 by two FBSPOs. This would seem to set the scene for an even more promising 2023.
From the below Table it is also apparent that the Boeing 777 was the most popular aircraft type employed during 2022 followed by the Airbus A350 and then the Airbus A330:
During the year, three FBSPOs employed a total of three main aircraft types across four variants.
TABLE 5: TOTAL FBSPO ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE AT KSIA FOR 2022
<table border="1">
<tr>
<td>FBSPO AIRCRAFT TYPE</td>
<td>TOTAL ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS</td>
<td>TOTAL % ARRIVALS</td>
<td>FBSPO</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Boeing 777-200LR / -300ER</td>
<td>503</td>
<td>90</td>
<td>Emirates and Qatar Airways</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Airbus A350-941</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>8</td>
<td>Turkish Airlines</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Airbus A330-300ER</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>Turkish Airlines</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total</td>
<td>561</td>
<td>100</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</table>
EMIRATES Taking the longest of the then extant two FBSPOs to return, Emirates only resumed its Durban operation on February 1, 2022 with the regular Boeing 777, in this case a -31H(ER) coded A6-EPR and flying once daily with arrivals scheduled for 17H05 with 19H00 departures.
Initially, flights were direct to and from Dubai, but from February 6 scheduled arrivals, still daily, switched to 13H40 with 15H15 departure and now again included Johannesburg as dogleg inbound only with direct outbound sector to Dubai.
The final direct inbound and outbound arrival was conducted by B777-21H(LR) coded A6-EWA. It is very seldom indeed that an Emirates B777-200 model visits Durban, the-300ER being the model of choice for Emirates for this route. It was the sole use of this smaller model to KSIA during the year by this airline. The first arrival, with Johannesburg as dogleg, involved A6-ECJ, a more usual B777-31H(ER) model.
Not long thereafter, what is believed to be a new local Emirates record (not an all-time KSIA record) was apparently established between February 10 and 15, 2022 when B777-31H(ER) coded A6-ECK completed no fewer than six successive arrivals at Durban. This beats by two what is believed to be the previous record, set in 2021, of four successive arrivals by the same Emirates B777. This occurrence is all the more spectacular considering the considerable size of the airline's B777 fleet.
As someone who closely follows and records aircraft registrations, with special interest in those of Emirates, another unusual aircraft registration combination played itself out during the same month as the above occurrence. Such a combination is highly irregular, even for Emirates:
TABLE 6: NOTABLE EMIRATES AIRCRAFT REGISTRATION ARRIVAL COMBINATIONS AT KSIA FOR 2022
<table>
<tr>
<th>AIRCRAFT ARRIVAL DATE</th>
<th>BOEING 777 REGISTRATION</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>20.02.2022</td>
<td>A6-ECD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>21.02.2022</td>
<td>A6-ECD</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>22.02.2022</td>
<td>A6-EGF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>23.02.2022</td>
<td>A6-EGF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>24.02.2022</td>
<td>A6-ECX</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>25.02.2022</td>
<td>A6-ECX</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>26.02.2022</td>
<td>A6-ECX</td>
</tr>
</table>
From May 1, Emirates revised its flight schedule to accommodate two arrivals daily on certain days and only one
on others whilst flying two different routes to the same destination simultaneously under two different flight numbers.
Flight number EK762 saw the B777 fly its usual Johannesburg inbound only dogleg with direct outbound leg to
Dubai on all days of the week with 12H00 scheduled arrival time at Durban. All other days of the week except
Mondays and Wednesdays additionally witnessed a direct rotation from Dubai, with 16H35 scheduled arrival time in
Durban, under flight number EK775. This meant that Emirates was now flying 12 weekly sustained arrivals compared
to its previously seven.
The reason for this significant spike in arrivals and whether related to the above Indaba or not is unknown by this
writer.
The above schedule remained in place for 4½ weeks before being discontinued (see Table below which details the
first full-flying week of the new schedule).
TABLE 7: EMIRATES' FLIGHT ARRIVALS SCHEDULE AT KSIA FOR WEEK MAY 2 - 8 FOR 2022
<table>
<tr>
<td>Route</td>
<td>Flight No.</td>
<td>Mon 2 May</td>
<td>Tue 3 May</td>
<td>Wed 4 May</td>
<td>Thu 5 May</td>
<td>Fri 6 May</td>
<td>Sat 7 May</td>
<td>Sun 8 May</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arrivals Times from Dubai via JHB</td>
<td>EK762</td>
<td>12H00</td>
<td>12H00</td>
<td>12H00</td>
<td>12H00</td>
<td>12H00</td>
<td>12H00</td>
<td>12H00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Arrivals direct from Dubai</td>
<td>EK775</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>16H35</td>
<td>-</td>
<td>16H35</td>
<td>16H35</td>
<td>16H35</td>
<td>16H35</td>
</tr>
</table>
Emirates revised its flight schedule once again for the second time in a month from June 2 when it deleted the Johannesburg dogleg flight (EK762) permanently and maintained the single direct rotation to/from Dubai, but on only five days of the week, Mondays and Wednesdays not being served. Arrival times remained at 16H35.
Interestingly, Mondays and Wednesdays were also the two days on which only single flights had been flown by Emirates on the previous schedule. Evidently this would appear to suggest that, as far as this airline's Durban operation is concerned, the demand for seats was lowest for it on these two days compared with all the other days of the week at this time.
Emirates achieved two significant FBSPO milestone KSIA records during 2022 at KSIA: On about April 19 it exceeded that originally and previously established by Air Mauritius for the longest continuous use of one main aircraft type on the Durban route by an FBSPO. This had been nine years, eleven months and about 13 days.
With the continued delays haunting the Boeing 777-300's successor, the Boeing 777X, this record will only be further reinforced going forward.
Secondly, Emirates became the first FBSPO at KSIA to achieve 4,000 actual arrivals on July 28, since making its very first scheduled arrival on the airport's opening on May 1, 2010.
Having flown a five-arrivals-weekly schedule for much of the year, it was a welcome move when the airline initiated its traditional one-arrival-daily frequency from December 1 and, as expected, maintained this pace through to the close of the year. Summer arrival times of 17H05 were relevant at this time with departures at 19H10.
It was always going to be interesting to see whether Emirates might lay on additional flights above the usual daily average, over the Christmas holiday period, as it is well known for doing in the distant past. However, this was not to be.
After having played second fiddle to Qatar Airways in 2021, regarding total scheduled actual arrivals for the year, it was not surprising that Emirates was once again restored to its pre-eminent position of having made the most actual arrivals of any FBSPO at Durban for 2022, namely 302. This constitutes 54% of total actual FBSPO arrivals for the year.
Of the three FBSPOs, Emirates was alone in logging any flight cancellations – one on February 2.
At the close of the year, Emirates' grand total actual scheduled arrivals at KSIA since May 1, 2010 was:
Airbus A330 = 762
Boeing 777 = 3,360
Total = 4,122
Emirates closed the year on December 31, 2022 flying the most appropriately registered Boeing 777 possible – A6-END!
Was this pure co-incidence or just someone's keen sense of humour? I wonder how many people picked this up? Just goes to show, the closer you look, the more you see.
TABLE 8: EMIRATES BOEING 777 AIRCRAFT REGISTRATIONS UTILISATION BREAKDOWN AT KSIA IN 2022
<table>
<tr>
<td>AIRCRAFT REGISTRATION BLOCK</td>
<td>ACTUAL TOTAL ARRIVALS</td>
<td>ROUNDED %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>A6-EBA to A6-EBZ</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>A6-ECA to A6-ECZ</td>
<td>100</td>
<td>33</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>A6-EGA to A6-EGZ</td>
<td>56</td>
<td>19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>A6-ENA to A6-ENZ</td>
<td>81</td>
<td>27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>A6-EPA to A6-EPZ</td>
<td>47</td>
<td>16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>A6-EQA to A6-EQP</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>A6-EWA to A6-EWJ</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Total</td>
<td>302</td>
<td>100</td>
</tr>
</table>
TURKISH AIRLINESProbably the biggest and most welcome news of the year was the return of an old stalwart when it recommenced services at the start of its second period of service to Durban on June 16, 2022. This came after a lay-off of 817 days (almost 2 years and 3 months) since its last ceased operations due to the start of the COVID pandemic in March 2020.
The initial arrivals frequency was only two weekly, the lowest frequency ever flown by Turkish to KSIA.
That historic first arrival was undertaken by an Airbus A350-941 registered TC-LGC. This was the first occasion on which the A350 had been used by Turkish to Durban. The second flight, on June 18, was in turn undertaken by an A330-303 registered TC-LND.
The initial week's flight schedule set the pattern for the weeks ahead in a most unorthodox way: the A350 flew only on the Thursday and the A330 only on the Saturday, ie two different aircraft types operating in a set rotation simultaneously – not only was this a first for Turkish at Durban, but it was also the first time that such an operation had ever been conducted by any FBSPO at KSIA – the kind of irregularity that one would have expected from Qatar Airways and less so from Turkish. This 'twinning' schedule was maintained for two successive months.
This second stint of service for the airline also brought the total number of FBSPOs at KSIA back up to three for the first time in over two years.
As with the first stint of service, the Johannesburg dogleg remained pivotal to both inbound and outbound services from Istanbul on the Durban flight and both days had scheduled arrival times of 12H55 and departure times of 15H10 under flight designation TK 42 and 43 as previously. Departure times were later extended to 16H50, giving a far longer turnaround time.
This was therefore the second clearly defined stint of service for the A330 for Turkish to Durban, which also became only the second FBSPO to have operated the A350 sustainably to KSIA after Qatar Airways.
Starting on August 11, the Durban route became a mostly A350-941 operation except for a sprinkling of random A330 arrivals. However, the final A330 arrival for 2022 was only completed by TC-JNZ on October 29, an all-A350 operation prevailing thereafter. It would, however, only be a very brave or foolish person who would predict that we have seen the last Turkish A330 at Durban.
This latest equipment change was a good sign of increased passenger demand since the A350's capacity is somewhat greater than that of the A330 it replaced. In fact, of the three FBSPOs operating to Durban at this time, Turkish was the first FBSPO to have demonstrated any increase (in this case by means of an equipment change) since the start of 2022.
Turkish ended the year in third position with only 58 actual arrivals achieved and making up only 10% of total FBSPO arrivals. Considering its very late start and the fact that it flew the lowest frequency of any extant FBSPO, what else could one realistically expect? The airline would appear to have some way to go yet before achieving par with its pre-COVID flight frequency.
There were no flight cancellations on its Durban route in 2022.
By the close of 2022, the grand total actual arrivals accumulated since inception at KSIA by all Turkish main aircraft types was:
Airbus A330 = 904
Airbus A350 = 47
Boeing 777 = 20
Total = 971
From the above, Turkish Airlines should achieve its milestone 1,000th KSIA actual scheduled arrival during 2023 and thereby becoming only the fourth KSIA FBSPO to have done so.
QATAR AIRWAYSThe opening shot for 2022 was fired on January 14, 2022 when Qatar Airways became the first FBSPO to recommence flight operations for the year at KSIA with the arrival of A7-BAW, a Boeing 777-3DZ(ER). This was after a 49-day hiatus of its operations after fears of the Corona Virus fourth wave commencing in SA. This effectively commenced the fourth distinct period of B777 service for this airline to KSIA.
This delay inevitably meant that 2022 was never going to be a record year for Qatar Airways in terms of total number of actual scheduled arrivals, but it would be some improvement on the two previous (COVID) years and hopefully set the groundwork for a more 'normal' year in 2023.
The Gulf airline recommenced where it had left off on November 26, 2021 ie, four arrivals weekly frequency on the same days and with Johannesburg as dogleg both inbound and outbound.
Unlike the two previous COVID years which saw three main aircraft types employed on the Durban route by the airline as it tried to juggle varying demand with available aircraft capacity, 2022 offered far greater stability with only the Boeing 777 being used, albeit with a twist.
Up to March 27, the -300ER model, as always previously used on the Durban route, was exclusively dominant. However, on this date Qatar Airways flew the -200 model to Durban for its first time (Note that Emirates had been the first FBSPO to operate the Boeing 777-200 model to KSIA previously) in the form of -2DZ(LR) registered A7-BBC.
Compared with its larger brother, the -200 seats a maximum of 272 passengers with 42 Business and 230 Economy seats.
Thereafter, the new subtype was used in random rotation with its larger brother. From its first arrival through to its last for the year on September 28, the -200 model was dominant with only a sprinkling of -300 model arrivals. From October 30 it was all -300 through the busy holiday period through to the close of the year.
During this initial period of Boeing 777-200 use, -2DZ(LR) A7-BBD flew the most to Durban with 18 arrivals accumulated compared with -BBC and -BBI which accrued 17 apiece.
Since the -200 fleet is quite small, it took only four-and-a-half months for the entire fleet of nine -200LRs to have each visited Durban at least once.
During the course of the year, the Boeing 777 became the single most used main aircraft type for Qatar Airways to KSIA, having assumed the record from its Boeing 787-8. At the close of the year, the three main types used by this FBSPO to Durban had achieved the following total arrivals since this airline's inception to Durban:
Qatar Airways total actual arrivals by main aircraft type (17.12.2015 to 31.12.2022) are:
Boeing 777 = 521
Boeing 787 = 508
Airbus A350 = 263
Total = 1,292
It is interesting to note that, of the three extant Durban FBSPOs, only Qatar Airways maintained its pre-COVID arrivals frequency numbers from its start of the year, while the other two FBSPOs' frequencies initially lagged well short of their pre-COVID equivalents. This may well have been just reward for this airline's faithfulness to the flying public when most other airlines were cowering from either government or self-imposed COVID restrictions during 2020/1.
Qatar Airways ended the calender year with no cancellations for any reasons and with the maximum possible number of actual arrivals given the two weeks 'lost' at the opening of the year. With 201 total actual arrivals, this was only eight arrivals short of this FBSPO's all-time KSIA record of 209 to date and placing it in a comfortable all-over second place only to Emirates. This total constitutes 36% of total FBSPO arrivals for the year.
From the foregoing, it would appear as though this airline has the least to do in 2023 in order to achieve its previous status quo.
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