Any interest in King Shaka International Airport stats?
To date, my airport visit log shows that I have been to KSIA 65 times since 2014, each time with at least one and sometimes more photographic objectives in mind.
Initially, my research was limited to compiling chronological histories (as it related to their Durban operation) for each international airline and adding to these in real time subsequently. This later extended to confirming each scheduled arrival for each airline on a daily basis so that I could count exactly how many arrivals and cancellations there had been over the course of one calendar year for accurate comparison with that airline's previous history and with others. This later extended to also recording the individual registrations of each arrival for an enduring record and so I could count the exact number of times a particular registration had come to Durban since its first appearance, for example.
None of my figures are official – they are all derived from daily and pedantic research on what is now my favourite subject – international aviation at KSIA.
Since 2018 I have also compiled an annual review of all international scheduled passenger operators calling at Durban, primarily for my own benefit, but once again there may be some that might enjoy the fruits of my research efforts?
I have attached a sample of such an annual review so you can appreciate the detail that I delve into and so that you can see the tables I use for clarification purposes.
Annual Review - 2021Much of 2021 was characterised by a slow, but constant recovery of sorts as regards Foreign-Based Scheduled Passenger Operators (FBSPO) at Durban, South Africa's King Shaka International Airport (KSIA). Then, in the dying weeks of the year, traditionally the busiest time, this sector was once again plunged into the deepest, darkest chasm of inactivity due to the far-reaching tentacles of the fourth wave of the Corona Virus pandemic.
As with much of last year, 2021 is a tale of two rivals - Emirates and Qatar Airways. Were it not for these two and especially the sizable contribution of Qatar Airways, this review might well never have had any grounds for existence.
The year was characterised by significant flight cancellations directly due to COVID-19 and both airlines trialled different permutations of existing routes in an attempt to find a 'sweet spot' and consolidate costs, only to ultimately resort to the long established status quo. This validated that they had been on the right track all along.
From a technological perspective, the introduction of one new variant of an existing and familiar aircraft type, kept things fresh and at least rolling in the right direction.
2021 was a watershed year in the history of KSIA. It was the first full year under the considerable influence of the COVID-19 pandemic and would thus set the initial standard by which all subsequent COVID years could be judged.
Ever since the very first week of Emirates' operation at King Shaka in May 2010, this airline's arrivals frequency has stood out head and shoulders above all other FBSPOs. The airline has broken the majority of the top-end records set at King Shaka over the years, many of which were first established by Emirates itself.
After slightly less than the seven years that Qatar Airways and Emirates have shared the concrete hardstands at Durban, latterly only Qatar Airways has come anywhere close to mounting any sort of challenge to Emirates' performance. But, at an average frequency of only four arrivals per week, this could hardly compare with Emirates' seven.
In a full-flying leap year at its traditional average weekly frequency of four arrivals and with no flight cancellations, Qatar Airways could at best achieve 209 total actual arrivals compared to Emirates' 365+ over the equivalent period. The former had to settle for second fiddle year upon year with little prospect of this ever changing in its favour.
And then came the Corona Virus.
TABLE 1: MULTIPLES OF TOTAL ACTUAL WEEKLY ARRIVALS BY ALL FBSPOs AT KSIA FOR 2021
| TOTAL |
ACTUAL |
WEEKLY ARRIVALS |
MULTIPLE |
REMARKS |
| 0 |
4 |
|
|
COVID-19 4th wave Omicron variant |
| 2 |
3 |
|
|
Qatar Airways only |
| 3 |
10 |
|
|
Qatar Airways only |
| 4 |
17 |
|
|
Qatar Airways only |
| 5 |
1 |
|
|
Emirates and Qatar Airways |
| 8 |
4 |
|
|
Emirates and Qatar Airways |
| 9 |
2 |
|
|
Emirates and Qatar Airways |
| 10 |
5 |
|
|
Emirates and Qatar Airways |
| 11 |
6 |
|
|
Emirates and Qatar Airways |
| Total = 275 |
Total = 52 weeks |
|
|
|
Trust a virus (of all things) to throw a wolf amongst the chickens and with more waves than you get with peristalsis, some governments and/or the airlines that flew under them, became too nervous to continue flight operations. Similarly, Emirates played its usual cautious hand and temporarily suspended scheduled passenger operations to Durban on January 15, 2021. Put mildly, this was not what one might call a great start to the aviation year at KSIA.
Unburdened by such rationale, Qatar Airways must surely have sensed the exciting prospect of being the sole FBSPO serving Durban, for a little while at least, with all the obvious advantages for it that quickly come to mind. It snatched the big, fat carrot of opportunity dangling enticingly before it and ran with it like a hare from hell!
2021 started quite subdued, even by Qatar Airways' standards at Durban, with arrivals frequencies vacilating between two or three per week and equally random rotations of equipment between the Boeing 787-8 and the slightly larger Airbus A350-941.
At this time, Maputo in Mozambique featured outbound only from Durban with a direct inbound sector from Doha, Qatar.
It is worth mentioning that this arrivals frequency was the lowest ever flown by this airline to KSIA up to this point.
This continued for six weeks and was followed, from February 15, by the Maputo dogleg being switched from outbound to inbound and with the simultaneous replacement of both aircraft types by a Durban stalwart, the familiar Boeing 777-300ER.
Note that during 2020 Qatar Airways had sustainably operated only two (B787 and A350) of its four long-range aircraft types to Durban, but in 2021 this increased to three types (B787, A350 and B777) with only the Airbus A380 not being flown. Qatar Airways thereby became the first FBSPO to have ever sustainably operated three types at KSIA during the course of one calender year.
This second stint of use of the Qatar Airways Boeing 777 lasted barely 17 successive actual arrivals, including a set frequency of three scheduled arrivals weekly, before Maputo was dropped permanently from the Durban route starting March 28. The last flight for this stint was conducted by B777-3DZ(ER) coded A7-BEK on March 25.
With this development, the traditional dogleg of Johannesburg was reintroduced both in and outbound with the concurrent change in equipment back to the A350-941 (now undertaking its third period of sustained service to KSIA). Also commencing with immediate effect was the traditional four scheduled arrivals weekly. With this latest development, Qatar Airways had come full circle as regards arrivals frequency, route and equipment.
It would appear as though the airline attempted to trial various permutations in an attempt to see whether Maputo could be successfully incorporated onto the Durban route and thereby consolidating two separate flights into one with Maputo almost being on a straight line on the way to the Durban furthest destination Since this effort was subsequently dropped, it is assumed to have not achieved the hoped for results.
This third stint (or fourth, depending on whether one includes the COVID break technicality as the boundary of one stint from the next or not) lasted quite long by Qatar Airways recent standards with 85 actual arrivals plus two cancellations, but was interjected by three random Boeing 777-300ER arrivals hinting at what was surely to come. And so it did.
By the time this A350 stint concluded on August 30 (as flown by A7-ALH), the B777 was readying for its third stint of service to Durban for Qatar Airways in total and its second stint of the year! This opening arrival was conducted by A7-BED on September 1.
No one could have predicted that Emirates' paralysis would last almost seven months, during which Qatar Airways quietly did what it does best and with no competition to speak of. The airline maintained its steady pace of arrivals through to almost the close of November, this latest operating period having first been initiated on October 4, 2020.
With a spate of two and three actual arrivals per week during the early part of the year and a veritable list of cancellations during December due to the COVID fourth wave, it was apparent that 2021 was never going to be a record year for Qatar Airways in terms of total actual scheduled arrivals, but the question remained - would its final figure beat that of its long-time Gulf rival? Despite having flown for most of the year, much of it in Emirates' absence, had it done enough?
On August 11, Emirates finally resumed its services to the port city using the ubiquitous Boeing 777-300ER, in this case A6-ECC. Its initial frequency was four arrivals weekly on Wednesdays, Thursdays, Fridays and Saturdays. The route remained as before the COVID break.
Armed with this information, close observers would have quickly done the math and could easily have determined, even at this stage, using extrapolation, who the ultimate winner would be, since it was a win by a country mile.
Qatar Airways had indeed done enough!
The record books will forever reflect that in 2021 it beat Emirates fair and square, becoming the first FBSPO to ever have done so at KSIA in this aspect at least.
“Oh, but Emirates wasn't there half the year. It isn't fair!”, some ardent Emirates supporters might be tempted to exclaim However, it must be reasoned that if Qatar Airways could stick it out under the tempestuous onslaught of the COVID-19 second and third waves, then why not Emirates or any other FBSPO for that matter? As far as KSIA was concerned, it was a full-flying year offering the maximum potential to any FBSPO that chose to take advantage of this freedom. By its very absence then, Emirates effectively handed a well-deserved victory to its regional rival.
The period of Emirates' absence, which lasted from January 15 to August 11, 2021 and equated to 208 successive days, was also the longest time period in which the airport had been served by only one FBSPO during a full-flying period – another new, albeit negative, record for KSIA.
The first 24 examples of Qatar Airways' larger A350-941 fleet is consecutively registered A7-ALA to A7-ALZ. August 29, 2021 marked an insignificant, yet interesting milestone for this airline: On this date the 24th example of the first 24 Airbuses from this range made its maiden appearance at KSIA and by absolute co-incidence you wouldn't believe what particular example this was – ALZ! It thus took three separate periods of service from the arrival of the first Qatar Airways A350-941 at Durban in late-2015, for each example of these 24 aircraft to have visited KSIA at least once.
One might have thought that Emirates' return to Durban would see Qatar Airways take a knock with some its potential trade going Emirates' way, but against all expectations, the converse prevailed, at least initially! This was a most encouraging sign indeed.
Emirates' August return to Durban was its usual cautious approach with only four arrivals per week for the first four successive weeks, followed by one week of five arrivals and then four weeks of six arrivals weekly before achieving seven arrivals for the week starting October 4, 2021. It thus took nine weeks for the airline to once again rebound back into its traditional Durban equilibrium of a once-daily scheduled arrivals frequency.
One interesting anomaly during 2021 was the appearance of one particular Boeing 777-31H(ER), registered A6-EGE, on three successive days, namely 11, 12 and 13 October. Emirates using the same aircraft to Durban in this way is hardly a common occurrence although doing so on two successive days is far more common and is confirmed as having occurred four times this year.
What followed instantly thereafter was even more extraordinary, however, because for the four successive days from October 14-17, A6-EGB was exclusively flown to Durban. Although unconfirmed, it is believed to be the first time that this has occurred. And the airline certainly picked the right example for this unusual occurrence, it being one of at least a few aircraft finished in what Emirates calls the 'Year of the 50th ' livery with large 50 and sweeping gold markings down the fuselage side in the place of the usual Emirates motif.
Despite a far smaller aircraft fleet, Qatar Airways also makes a occasional foray into using the same aircraft registration on two successive flights, but to date, three is as rare as hen's teeth!
The appearance at KSIA of any new aircraft type or variant is always a thrilling development for aviation lovers, even if not sustainably used (as in this case). On the historic day of October 31, Durban had the honour of entertaining the most welcome first appearance of an Airbus A350-1000, not only for Qatar Airways but also for the airport itself. The A350-1041 variant was registered A7-ANH.
Compared to this airline's -941's 283 maximum seating capacity, the -1041's layout is for a maximum of 327 with 46 Business and 281 Economy seats.
During the year in question, Qatar Airways' actual arrivals by aircraft type were divided as such: Airbus A350-1041 (2 actual arrivals = 1.2% of total Qatar Airways arrivals), the Boeing 787-8 (8 = 4.8%), the Boeing 777-300ER (65 = 38.7%), while the king's share went the way of the Airbus A350-941 (93 = 55.4%).
TABLE 2: QATAR AIRWAYS AIRCRAFT TYPE OPERATIONS AT KSIA IN 2021
| PERIOD |
AIRCRAFT TYPE/S |
| 01.01.2021 – 14.02.2021 |
Boeing 787-8 and Airbus A350-941 simultaneously |
| 15.02.2021 – 25.03.2021 |
Boeing 777-300ER exclusively |
| 28.03.2021 – 30.08.2021 |
Airbus A350-941 mostly with occasional Boeing 777-300ER |
| 01.09.2021 – 26.11.2021 |
Boeing 777-300ER mostly with occasional Airbus A350-941/-1041 and Boeing 787-8 |
The end of October proved to be the catalyst for some fascinating developments for both extant FBSPOs.
Starting Sunday, October 31 and every Sunday thereafter, Qatar Airways introduced a strange anomaly: a singular arrival by either of the A350 variants (-941 or -1041) or the smaller Boeing 787-8. Evidently, Sundays did not justify use of the heftier B777. The remaining three arrivals for the week remained exclusively B777 biased.
But Emirates also brought in the route changes. Starting on October 31 too (more than likely sheer co-incidence), this airline's daily flight schedule underwent drastic reshuffling in what can best be described as – two different routes to the same destination on alternate days and two different arrival times using two different flight numbers. Eisch! For the record, this first historic Emirates arrival was completed by A6-ECE, a B777-31H(ER).
What this meant was that on that date, the traditional B777 daily flight, now numbered EK776, would arrive at 16H00 instead of the usual EK775's 13H05 (13H40 from November 2).
Besides the different scheduled arrival times, the most significant difference was that both routes still included Johannesburg as dogleg, but while EK775 included it inbound only (ie, Dubai – JHB – DBN – Dubai), EK776 included Johannesburg outbound only (Dubai – DBN – JHB – Dubai).
To better understand the reasons for this reshuffle, one must of necessity, closely examine the other Johannesburg destination arrivals of Emirates at the time, but a detailed examination of this falls beyond the scope of this article.
This revised schedule persisted for a full month, but scheduled to start from December 1 was a return to its Durban roots with direct flights both ways between Dubai and Durban. As with Qatar Airways, Emirates too was about to come full circle. But alas, this was not to be.
The self admission of the Omicron variant in South Africa saw countries hasten to impose flight bans on this country to try to prevent (at best) or slow (at worst) the possible appearance of the then unknown variant of unknown virility in their countries.
As did other nations, the United Arab Emirates was also quick to respond and ceased flying to Durban with their final scheduled arrival on November 27, as recorded by A6-ECM, a B777-36N(ER).
Although Qatar Airways didn't cease flying to SA as before, its Durban flights never went that far, stopping short only as far as the Johannesburg dogleg. The last actual arrival at Durban was on November 26, as recorded by A7-BEC, a B777-3DZ(ER).
December was a deep, dark fallow month for KSIA as far as FBSPOs were concerned. .
While actual arrivals frequencies of three and four were flown by both FBSPOs in 2021, with only two extant operators, not too much can be made of this. For the same reason, little can be deduced from the fact that Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays and Sundays were equally the most popular arrivals days for both operators combined when flying at their respective full scheduled arrivals frequencies.
TABLE 3: FBSPO ACTUAL WEEKLY ARRIVALS FREQUENCIES AT KSIA IN 2021
| FBSPO | ACTUAL WEEKLY ARRIVAL FREQUENCIES FLOWN |
| Emirates | 3, 4, 5, 6 and 7 |
| Qatar Airways | 2, 3 and 4 |
TABLE 4: KSIA TOTAL ARRIVALS BY FBSPO FOR 2021
| SERIAL | FBSPO | TOTAL ACTUAL ARRIVALS | % of TOTAL ACTUAL ARRIVALS |
| 1 | Qatar Airways | 168 | 61.10% |
| 2 | Emirates | 107 | 38.90% |
| Total | 275 | 100.00% |
While 2020's 434 total actual arrivals from all seven extant FBSPOs was not fully representative of a full COVID year, the same cannot be said of 2021 and its 275 total arrivals by the above pair of FBSPOs. This is the lowest total actual arrivals ever at KSIA for any reason. Surely things could not get much worse for 2022, or am I seriously tempting fate?
In 2021 the weekly total arrivals peaked at only 11 compared with the all time FBSPO record of 38 achieved in pre-COVID 2019.
In 2020, Emirates completed 136 actual arrivals (31.3%) compared to 2021's 107 (38.9%) while Qatar Airways, by comparison, significantly upped its game from 2020's 79 actual arrivals (18.2%) to 2021's 168 (61.1%). The latter averaged 14 arrivals monthly in 2021 compared to Emirates' 8.9. So, all told, statistically speaking Emirates fared relatively poorly by comparison with its Gulf rival.
Whatever happens, let's hope that 2022's action will be sufficient to jolt us all out of our COVID stupor and really see aviation do what it does best – take-off!
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