Hi All
Starting in 2018, each year I have compiled an unofficial annual review of Foreign-Based Scheduled Passenger Operator (FBSPO) operations at Durban's King Shaka International Airport (KSIA). This is primarily to have a lingering record as a basis for comparison from one year to the next.
If you have any interest in Durban's 'big' airport during the first COVID-19 year (2020), then you might wish to avail yourself of some of the details below. But, beware, it is heavily aircraft biased because that is my area of interest.
With notable assistance from Tony Badger, we have made every effort to ensure, to the extent possible, that figures (although unofficial) are as accurate as possible and that nothing significant has crept through the cracks.
If there is anything meaningful that you might be able to correct or add to the report, then I would like to hear from you on
oopsaahcast@yahoo.com or WhatsApp 0760511586 or landline (W and H) 031 2612680 all hours!
99% of the statistics is extrapolated from info sourced from
www.flightradar24.com and if necessary, further verified from
www.flightaware.com where any doubt exists.
I find the former particularly invaluable for its clarity and layout which aids an otherwise difficult task to make it a pleasure and crucially, flightradar gives the all-important aircraft tail numbers (thank God for that!) while flightaware does not.
In March 2018 I started recording FBSPO aircraft tail numbers with little clear motive for doing so. I just thought it might come in useful someday, somehow. But little did I appreciate just how useful it would become!
Alongside the reg I place the first sighting date, last sighting date, con number and any relevant notes and the total number of actual arrivals. Within a short period of time, I was hooked!
Fictitious example:
Emirates, B777-300ER, A6-XYZ (cn 12345) F/S 01.01.2010, L/S 02.01.2010, special FIFA colour scheme, total actual arrivals to date (9);
The more registrations I recorded daily, so the fewer remained outstanding from the available registration block for that aircraft type until it becomes a fascinating exercise to try and obtain those still outstanding. My ideal is to get at minimum one confirmed arrival of every single registration for a particular aircraft type of that specific FBSPO flying to KSIA! I don't like irritating gaps!
Keeping a close eye on these registrations also exposes one to information you would otherwise miss. I allude to some of these gems in my report below. I am sure you will find these observations fascinating! Its so true. The deeper you look, the more you see and the more you benefit. Take up the registration challenge yourself and see if I am wrong?
Enjoy the detail.
Flying regards
Clinton Barnard
FOREIGN-BASED SCHEDULED PASSENGER
OPERATIONS AT KING SHAKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
ANNUAL REVIEW
2020
by Clinton Barnard
I must admit, when the Corona Virus-caused COVID-19 pandemic struck the world and indeed South Africa and motivated a local national lock down, I had initial suspicions as to whether my annual review of Foreign-Based Scheduled Passenger Operators (FBSPO) at Durban, South Africa's King Shaka International Airport (KSIA) would ever be justified, since surely there would be little to review. Right? Wrong!
No-one could have imagined that just two extant FBSPOs could result in such post-lock down activity to rival that of some full years and the length of this offering is a direct testament to this reality.
While six months of potential activity was inevitably and forever 'lost', six months of activity remained. The glass was half empty, but yes, it was also half full.
Much to my delight, these six months have not been dormant and incredibly, even a string of new records (some positive, some negative) the likes of which we could never have imagined, have been set.
Given the unique challenges resulting from the impact from the virus means that this will probably be the most unusual review ever, the likes of which are guaranteed never to be repeated.
The new challenge required a new approach. To do this annual 2020 review full justice, it was always going to have to be a tale of two parts: pre- and post-COVID.
2020 started off with FBSPO operations generally on a high with all seven extant operators either equaling or bettering their previous peak performances at KSIA.
But, the week starting January 6, 2020 saw KSIA log its record highest ever total number of FBSPO actual scheduled arrivals in one full flight week of 38. Incredible. And even more so, when one considers what was to come. This beat by one the previous record of 37 total actual scheduled weekly arrivals first achieved during the week starting December 16, 2019.
The biggest single contributor to the establishment of this local record was undoubtedly Emirates simultaneously achieving a local record of 13 actual arrivals for that week, one more than its previous record of 12 achieved just two weeks earlier. That is, six days of two flights daily and one day of one flight. Aah, the good ol' days!
Including flight cancellations, unusual frequencies motivated by the Corona Virus pandemic and any additional scheduled passenger flights laid on, each FBSPO achieved the following weekly frequency totals during a full flight week:
TABLE 1: FBSPO ACTUAL WEEKLY SCHEDULED ARRIVALS FREQUENCIES AT KSIA IN 2020
FBSPO ACTUAL SCHEDULED WEEKLY ARRIVAL FREQUENCIES
Air Mauritius 2, 3 and 4
Air Namibia 5, 6 and 7
British Airways 3
Emirates 3, 4, 5, 7, 9 and 13
Proflight Zambia 1, 2 and 3
Qatar Airways 2, 3 and 4
Turkish Airlines 2 and 4
From the above Table, it is apparent that three flights per week (as flown by five FBSPOs) was the most common frequency flown in 2020 (one less than the equivalent for 2019), followed by two flights weekly (by four FBSPOs). Note that these frequencies were not necessarily sustained and in many instances were just one-off events.
TABLE 2: MULTIPLES OF TOTAL ACTUAL SCHEDULED WEEKLY ARRIVALS BY FBSPOs AT KSIA FOR 2020
TOTAL ACTUAL SCHEDULED WEEKLY ARRIVALS* MULTIPLE REMARKS
0 26 SA national lock down
1 1
4 1
5 3
6 6
7 2
8 1
24 1
28 3
30 4
31 1
32 1
33 1
38 1 New 2020 local record
TOTAL 52 weeks
Note: The sum of these subtotals exceeds the annual total number of flights due to the year not starting and ending clinically at the change of week.
The 0-38 range of FBSPO actual scheduled weekly flight arrivals above is the largest to date at KSIA and is directly due to the COVID-19 lock down that motivated the slow, progressive increase in flying activity by the airlines. The lower weekly arrivals figures were mostly achieved post-lock down while the weightier numbers all date pre-lock down.
Considering only the last 13 weeks of 2020, which constituted the post-lock down period, Wednesdays were the least popular FBSPO arrivals day (3 arrivals) followed by Fridays (6) and Tuesdays (8). More popular were Mondays (12) then Saturdays (13) and Sundays (17). But, the most popular arrival day of all and by a convincing margin, was Thursdays (23) where, for the most part, both extant operators flew. This contrasts was 2019's most popular equivalent of Tuesdays obtained with seven FBSPOs and which was naturally more representative.
After completing 893 actual arrivals with its Airbus A330-300s between November 5, 2015 and February 13, 2020, Turkish Airlines made the first of three primary aircraft equipment changes for the year, more than any year to date (the other two having being made by Qatar Airways).
The final A330 flight was made by a -303 model coded TC-JOD, to be replaced on the next scheduled flight with the larger Boeing 777-300ER, a -3F2(ER) model coded TC-JJY, two days later. This was the first sustained use by this iconic type by Turkish Airlines to Durban, but not the first B777 flight under the Turkish Airlines flag. Another -3F2(ER) coded TC-JJG had made a once-off flight to Durban on July 24, 2018. The airline thereby became the third FBSPO to have sustainably operated the B777 to KSIA after Emirates and Qatar Airways and making the B777 the most popular aircraft type to date for Durban-serving FBSPOs. .
TABLE 3: TOTAL AND PROPORTION OF ACTUAL SCHEDULED AIRCRAFT FLIGHT ARRIVALS BY FBSPO AT KSIA IN 2020 (PRE – LOCK DOWN)
NUMBER FBSPO TOTAL ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS % OF TOTAL ARRIVALS
1 Proflight Zambia 23 6.40%
2 Air Mauritius 37 10.40%
3 British Airways 37 10.40%
4 Turkish Airlines 44 12.40%
5 Qatar Airways 46 13.00%
6 Air Namibia 78 22.00%
7 Emirates 90 25.40%
TOTAL 355 100.00%
It was the greatest irony therefore that KSIA should have its wings figuratively clipped following the nationwide Stage 5 lock down restrictions that came into effect at midnight on Thursday, March 26, 2020 - this at a time when it should have been celebrating its first decade of operations on May 1, 2020. This extended to all domestic and international scheduled passenger flights which, at its peak, would last an unprecedented 2½ months. This effectively disabled all scheduled passenger services. What should have been a significant celebration of the first 10 year anniversary at King Shaka operations, thus passed only as an unspectacular historical milestone fit only for the record books.
Turkish Airlines had been the first to blink when it dropped its usual flights on Mondays and Thursdays (March 16 and 19) to Durban, these flights terminating instead at Johannesburg.
In the face of the looming lock down, the first FBSPO to completely cease scheduled arrivals at KSIA was Air Mauritius which conducted its final flight on March 18 (with Airbus A319 coded 3B-NBF), Qatar Airways (A350 coded A7-ALE) and Turkish Airlines (Boeing 777 coded TC-JJT) followed suit on March 21. Next day, Emirates (B777 coded A6-ECZ) and Proflight Zambia (CRJ100 coded 9J-PZA) followed and on March 24 it was the turn of Air Namibia (ERJ-135 coded V5-ANF).
British Airways was the last FBSPO to cease operations on March 26 and went all out to see to it that its usual Friday arrival still occurred by bringing the flight forward some hours to Thursday instead. The Boeing 787-9 used, G-ZBKO, actually the fourth different use of this sub-type to KSIA in 2020, arrived at 20H47 and departed at 23H05 thereby beating the midnight deadline by only 55 minutes. Where there is a will.... The Boeing 787-8 is most commonly used on this route.
With no similar pandemic having ever occurred in the world and indeed in South Africa since the 1918 Spanish Flu, it was always going to be fascinating to see exactly how the 'new normal' would affect the resumption of international services.
There were many nagging questions with no clear answers and only time would come to the rescue. Questions like: How many FBSPOs would survive the worldwide economic collapse that followed the almost global lock down? How quickly would international services resume? When the lock down was eventually lifted, would the same flight frequencies prevail as before or would a more cautious crawl, walk, run approach initially be adopted? Would smaller aircraft equipment be initially used until such time as greater passenger demand justified the use of larger aircraft types traditionally employed on these routes? Would there be any initial passenger resistance to flying out of a fear (whether justified or not) of contracting the Corona Virus in an effectively 'sealed' aircraft 'tube'? The answers to these and many other questions would be keenly anticipated by many and varied interested parties and not least the passengers and cabin crew who had the most to lose.
Like the wildebeest in Kenya's annual Mara River crossing that run the submerged threat of crocodiles lying in wait, passenger necessity would drive the initially courageous (or foolish?) passengers to take the plunge. These would unwittingly serve as guinea pigs for the more cautious masses that would first observe intently and then inevitably follow like sheep.
As far as Durban was concerned, the earliest confirmed casualty of the lock down was Proflight Zambia. Although this regional airline survived the pandemic with exclusive reliance on its healthy domestic market, following the opening of regional flights to Durban, the airline decided it would concentrate its efforts on the direct Lusaka – Johannesburg sector rather than its long-time direct Lusaka - Durban route. Evidently, Proflight found the proverbial honey pot in their new route and at the close of the year there were no indications that this airline would return to Durban any time soon.
It was not until mid-June 2020 that limited (business only) domestic services recommenced at King Shaka. Full domestic services recommenced from midnight on August 17, 2020. The first regular international scheduled passenger service was cleared for arrival from midnight on October 1, 2020.
Although many, including this writer, had expected Emirates to be the first international airline out of the starting blocks regarding the resumption of services to Durban and, as it transpired, Emirates had indeed scheduled its opening arrival at Durban for October 1, the first flying day of operations, it was neither Emirates, nor Turkish Airlines nor British Airways, nor Air Namibia that were anywhere to be seen following October 1. The reason why Emirates did no feature initially has been well documented and will not be laboured here.
However, Qatar Airways (QA) had scheduled their first arrival shortly afterwards. Clearly, it intended to take advantage of any slouching from the competition (for whatever reason) in what can only be described as typically Al-Baker style.
The record will forever reveal that as it so happened, QA made the first post-lock down international arrival at King Shaka on October 4. This was conducted using the equipment as employed on this route pre-COVID namely, the A350-941 and in this instance coded A7-ALQ.
QA managed to squeeze in no less than three arrivals before the second post-COVID international arrival, the slightly delayed Emirates, appeared on the scene from October 8, 2020, the latter too employing the same Boeing 777-300ER as previously. As it so happened, these rival Gulf airlines would prove to be the sole two players in the serious game of commercial aviation at King Shaka right up to the close of the year.
Whereas QA flew its former route of Doha – JHB – DBN – JHB – Doha and the same Durban arrival time, Emirates had a new arrival time but different route again compared to its previous direct route and now flying with the inclusion of OR Tambo on the inbound sector only. This was a new local record: The first FBSPO to sustainably transition from a previous direct inbound sector (Dubai – Durban) to an indirect inbound sector (Dubai – Johannesburg – Durban) and a direct outbound sector (Durban – Dubai).
Significantly, this was also a negative record for Emirates in that its initial three flights weekly schedule was the lowest ever sustainably flown to Durban by this airline. This frequency, Thursdays, Saturdays and Sundays, was sustained for six consecutive weeks between October 8 and November 15 before Emirates stepped things up by one to four flights weekly the very next week; the first positive indication for this formerly popular route since the start of the post-COVID period.
The week starting December 14, 2020 witnessed a further increase by one to now give five scheduled arrivals per week, although by the close of the year it was not apparent whether this was a new sustainable frequency or only a temporary 'holiday' period increase. The new frequency saw only Mondays and Wednesdays not served.
The first full week of post-COVID operations saw QA rebound immediately and unexpectedly to its former frequency of four flights weekly, albeit not on the same days, whereas Emirates managed only three, or less than half of its former frequency of seven Durban arrivals weekly, during its first full week. Admittedly, we have no way of knowing passenger load factors and whether these respective flights were justified or just window dressing.
So, the first full week of post -COVID FBSPO operations (starting Monday, October 5) saw a total of seven FBSPO arrivals by only two international airlines, effectively dragging KSIA back to the pre-2010 period in terms of activity levels.
To place this into perspective, let us recall that during the very first full week of KSIA operations way back in May 2010, there had also been only two FBSPOs, but significantly, the total number of actual scheduled international arrivals were nine, ie two more than latterly being achieved!
QA did not maintain its old schedule for very long for, on October 23, 2020, the airline completed its final flight, for the time being at least, using Johannesburg on both the inbound and outbound legs to/from Durban respectively. Using A7-ALM, this flight was also the last for the Airbus A350-941 on the 'old' route, which the airline had exclusively employed on no less than 171 arrivals since July 1, 2019.
The next scheduled arrival would be on October 26, 2020 and represent the first route change since the airline first started operating to Durban on November 17, 2015. KSIA could, for the first time, now claim its first direct flight to Durban from Doha, with the Johannesburg dogleg having being deleted, while on the outbound leg Maputo in Mozambique was added. The full route is thus Doha – Durban – Maputo – Doha.
Durban scheduled arrival time was 10H05 and departure time 11H15 with two flights per week being initially flown on Mondays and Thursdays.
Two flights weekly could also be viewed as a negative record given that QA had only previously flown a minimum and maximum of four flights sustainably up to this latest change in route.
But this reduction in frequency also leveraged a new negative all-time record for KSIA itself: the lowest number of FBSPO arrivals ever recorded during one full flight week, namely five (three from Emirates and two by QA). This number was flown for two further weeks thereafter until being rescued back up to six aided by Emirates' increased frequency at this time.
Furthermore, besides the route change, QA also initially introduced an equipment change with the A350 (283 seats) giving way to the slightly smaller Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner (254 seats). The latter's use thereafter was consistent, but the airline was yet to throw a curved ball....
Of course, this was not the first time that this type had flown to Durban on QA's behalf, since it had been the original equipment employed by QA to Durban during an earlier stint from November 17, 2015. The first Boeing 787-8 used on the new route was coded A7-BCQ.
This was the third time that QA had changed its sustained flying equipment to Durban – the first FBSPO to do so locally and thereby setting a new local record and beating the record previously held by Air Namibia with its two sustained equipment changes.
But the new route and changes also brought about new local KSIA records for QA. It became the first FBSPO to sustainably transition from an indirect (two stage) inbound sector (Doha – Johannesburg – Durban) to a single stage inbound sector (Doha – Durban). Secondly, QA became the first FBSPO serving King Shaka to fly a sustained single sector inbound route and twin sector outbound route (Durban – Maputo – Doha), both of these records coming into effect from October 26, 2020. Also effective from this date, finally, QA became the first FBSPO to ever sustainably transition from one objective to another on the outbound sector from Durban (ie, from Johannesburg to Maputo) in the history of the airport.
QA gave a possible sneak peak of what aircraft equipment might yet replace the initially used Boeing 787 should passenger demand exceed current aircraft capacity for, on November 30, a Boeing 777-300ER coded A7-BAJ, flew the new route for the first time. Although possibly used as a trial flight, that this significantly larger type was even being considered so soon after the commencement of the new route, can only be seen as a big positive for the airline.
If something seems strangely familiar about this order, then you will recall that QA had replaced their Dreamliner with Boeing 777s after the conclusion of the Boeing 787's first stint to KSIA. Is that Carly Simon's song Coming Around Again that I hear...?
It must be recalled that QA previously flew a direct flight to Maputo from Doha and the former Mozambiquean flight falling away immediately prior to October 26, to be replaced by the Durban route. Effectively merging two separate flights into one would result in significant cost savings for the airline, Maputo being essentially on the route to Doha from Durban.
With the new route barely 13 arrivals old, on December 10, 2020 QA surprised all by introducing its Airbus A350-941 on it for the first time in the form of A7-ALO. Evidently, the new route was proving more popular than the airline's initial expectations and greater passenger demand dictated greater capacity.
Although it is early days yet, initial indications are that QA might have adopted a more dynamic and flexible aircraft type selection procedure for its new route, affording itself the ability to quickly switch from Dreamliner to Airbus or vice versa as passenger numbers dictate rather than just going with one type as is traditionally done in commercial aviation. And why not?
Although initially the bias favoured the Boeing 787, the A350's use is not that far behind and it will be fascinating to observe which of the two aircraft types would become more dominant in time.
It was also the first time that QA had flown three different aircraft types on this route in only eleven days (including the once-off Boeing 777 flight of November 30) – a new local QA record, but not all-time KSIA record. Clearly, QA was bringing the changes at a healthy pace and making sure that nothing was too predictable for very long, even if inadvertently!
With the latest aircraft employment, QA added yet another all-time record to its local history: The first FBSPO to have flown five sustainable main aircraft types successively on the same general route to Durban since the very start of this FBSPO's Durban operation (chronologically the B787-8, B777, A350-941, B787-8 (2nd stint), and now the A350-941 once again).
TABLE 4: TOTAL AND PROPORTION OF ACTUAL SCHEDULED AIRCRAFT FLIGHT ARRIVALS BY FBSPO AT KSIA IN 2020 (POST - LOCK DOWN)
NUMBER FBSPO TOTAL ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS % OF TOTAL ACTUAL ARRIVALS
1 Emirates 46 58.20%
2 Qatar Airways 33 41.80%
TOTAL 79 100.00%
The week starting December 21 also saw QA increase its frequency by one on the new route to a weekly total of three, adding Sundays. Once again, by the close of the year, as with Emirates, it was not apparent whether this revised frequency would prove sustainable or not.
TABLE 5: COMBINED TOTAL AND PROPORTION OF ACTUAL SCHEDULED FLIGHT ARRIVALS BY FBSPO AT KSIA FOR 2020
NUMBER FBSPO TOTAL ACTUAL SCHEDULED ARRIVALS % OF TOTAL ACTUAL ARRIVALS
1 Proflight Zambia 23 5.30%
2 Air Mauritius 37 8.50%
3 British Airways 37 8.50%
4 Turkish Airlines 44 10.10%
5 Air Namibia 78 18.00%
6 Qatar Airways 79 18.20%
7 Emirates 136 31.30%
TOTAL: 434 100.00%
The close of the year saw only about one quarter (434 total actual scheduled arrivals) of the total arrivals logged in 2019 (1,625*). Any comment on this would be unjustified under the circumstances, except to say that this is the lowest total ever achieved to date, but then, what can one expect with 26 potential flying weeks lost due to COVID?
As the new year settles in, there is much to anticipate: How will the two existing players evolve with time with their revised routes? If, when and how will the traditional FBSPOs return to Durban's shores? These answers will hopefully be decisively settled in 2021.
We wait with bated breath.
* Approximate figure due to Air Namibia's total arrivals not being exactly known by this writer.
ENDS
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